The polls have Obama ahead by as high as 11 points right now. Does this mean it’s game over for McCain/Palin? No way. The numbers will tighten up in the days before the election and this could go either way. As Jake Tapper at Political Punch notes in his post- Obama-Backers: Check Yourself Before You Wreck Yourself– the numbers right now don’t mean much and even ‘smart folks’ in the Obama camp know it:
That’s not what lots of smart folks in the Obama campaign think. They believe Obama’s poll numbers are artificially high, McCain’s are artificially low, this race will come down to two or three points, and anything could happen.
As Anne Kornblut and Jon Cohen in the Washington Post today remind us, “recent history suggests that mid-October leads are vulnerable…At this stage in 1992, Bill Clinton held a 14-point advantage over incumbent George H.W. Bush in Post-ABC polling, and it was as high as 19 points before the election, which he won by six points. In mid-October 1976, Jimmy Carter had leads as big as 13 points in Gallup polling; Carter defeated incumbent Gerald Ford by two points.”
CNN on October 5, 2000 reported that the “CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll indicates that Vice President Al Gore may be opening a solid lead over Texas Gov. George W. Bush, after nearly two weeks of neck-and-neck competition. Today’s figures — 51 percent for Gore to 40 percent for Bush — represents a significant margin for the vice president.”
Obviously the numbers narrowed a little bit.
As will these as well.