PUMAs Can Tip This for McCain

3 Nov

Via Hillbuzz:

It looks like all it will take is just 938,161 PUMAs in key states to win this for McCain/Palin and defeat Obama and his particular brand of socialism for good — that’s all it will take to save the American coal industry, to prevent the Orwellian “Department of Peace and Nonviolence” from usurping the Department of Defense, to keep the National Civilian Security Force from ever existing, and to keep America the leader of the Free World (and not a vassal of the United Nations).

Here’s a table MarstonChronicles ran breaking down just how many PUMAs are needed to tip the race in each of these states — out of Clinton’s 18 million votes during the primaries, just this many Democrats putting what’s best for the country above the party will save America from the closest brush with socialism it’s ever had.

Marston Chronicles explains the table here:

Your first thought is that I am drunk on Kool-Aid when you see this title (McCain/Palin Landslide). I am going to show you why I am so sure about this prediction. Your next question is why should anyone pay any attention to me about such a ridiculous prediction. The answer is that in 45 years in politics, I have never been wrong about an election call even when I was called crazy. That includes get elected to office to prove I was right about winning an election. See my biography for details. I have to be very sure to risk a 45 year reputation so remember that you read it here first.The P.U.M.A. Factor. On November 1st, I posted an article entitled How Big is the P.U.M.A. Factor?

The next question is how could I possibly be so sure when the polls are predicting the exact opposite? Because I know the polls are wrong since they are not properly taking into account the P.U.M.A. Factor. I have explained previously that the mere fact that the polls violently disagree with each other is proof of something seriously amiss with the polling models. See my article on

That article pointed out that, at the time I wrote it, it required only a total of 493,636 PUMA voters in North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado to produce a tie in the electoral votes. Add a mere 35,935 more in Nevada and McCain-Palin wins. At the time, I was almost ready to bet the ranch that there were 529,571 PUMA voters in those six states, but I waited another 24 hours to make sure. Now the trend is so clear that it is obvious to me that a McCain-Palin landslide is in the works. It is amazing how few people in politics never apply some fairly simple mathematics to see what is going to happen in the next election.

Let us begin by repeating the table showing how few PUMA voters are required for McCain-Palin to win from my previous article. That table listed all battleground states where McCain-Palin was less than 13 points behind in the Real Clear Politics averages in those states.

What leaps out at you is that Iowa has dropped off the table because the RCP average is fighting the trend and has gone from 11.6 to 15 points and is out of reach. On the other hand, Minnesota has gone from above 13 points down to 11.5 and now needs to be added to the table. Seven of the other states have dropped significantly in the RCP averages and three are unchanged. Now instead of McCain-Palin needing 493,636 PUMA votes to tie and 35,935 more to win, they only need 395,617 to tie and 32,065 more to win. I have changed the last two columns to reflect the changes in the RCP averages and the number of PUMA voters no longer required. I know a trend when I see one.

Even more important is how few PUMA voters in these eleven states are required for a McCain-Palin landslide. If you add up the PUMA’s needed column in the second table, you will see that only an extra 510,479 more PUMA’s are needed to sweep the table. That is a mere 938,161 PUMA’s needed spread across eleven states to produce a McCain-Palin landslide. Do you really want to tell me that there are not that many Hillary supporters who cannot vote for Obama-Biden in these eleven states out of 18,000,000 of them? Now who is drinking the Kool-Aid?

Do I really think that that McCain-Palin will carry all of these states? No, because I am worried that there are not enough PUMA’s in the western states, particularly New Mexico and possibly Colorado. What I will bet my 45 year reputation on is that McCain-Palin will win by at least 42 electoral votes. I will recalculate everything tomorrow and will undoubtedly up my estimate to around a 100 vote margin.


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